The bio-based plastics market is set to benefit from soaring feedstock costs for virgin polymers brought about by the spike in crude oil prices, a new report has claimed.
The volatile international economic climate – which has led to a spike in the price of crude oil to over $100 per barrel – was making bioplastics more competitive, the market report from IDTechEx has revealed.
The report, ‘Bioplastics 2026-2036: Technology, Market, Players, and Forecasts’, analysed key emerging technologies, global trends and growth opportunities driving the bioplastics industry.
It estimated bio-based plastics production to reach 14.5 million tonnes per annum by 2036, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 13.5 per cent.
While bioplastics have been commercialised for more than two decades, they have historically struggled to compete with fossil-based equivalents because of higher production costs, which command a significant green premium.
Over $100 per barrel
However, IDTechEx research has shown that since the price of oil first crossed the key $100/barrel threshold earlier this year, European PE prices have doubled to over €2.5($2.9) per kg, making alternative bio-based ethylene much more competitive, at €2-2.5($2.3-2.9)/kg.
Combined with heightened demand for more sustainable plastics from brand owners and a growing desire among consumers for ‘green’ products, there is ‘surplus demand for bioplastics’, the report found.
This has encouraged partnerships between bioplastics manufacturers and brand owners to ‘secure investment, establish demand and accelerate the rapid scale-up of large capacity expansions’.
Well-established bioplastics, including polylactic acid (PLA) and bio-based polyolefins (PE/PP), are expected to retain significant market shares, while emerging bio-based polymers, including polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) and PE furanoate (PEF), are also forecast to grow significantly, the report showed.
It found a significant demand for ‘drop-in’ bioplastics from manufacturers as these retain the same material properties as their fossil counterparts and do not require investment in new production and processing infrastructure.
A substitute for virgin feedstock
Examples include bio-based polyolefins such as bio-PE and bio-PP, as well as the partly bio-based polyester PET, which are derived from bio-based feedstocks that are chemically identical to conventional petrochemicals and can therefore be either partially or fully substituted for the bio-based form.
While durable drop-ins face the same end-of-life challenges as their fossil-based equivalents, their circularity is enhanced relative to alternative bioplastics because they are compatible with well-established recycling streams, the findings suggested.
The report noted several key challenges and reiterated that, to be truly sustainable and circular, bioplastics needed to be designed for successful end-of-life processing.
While several novel bioplastics have been developed to provide biodegradable solutions for single-use applications such as packaging, cups and cutlery, and the now-established PLA can be industrially composted, the report indicated that the lack of an economic incentive for composting infrastructure often detracts from PLA’s biodegradable credentials.
Most PLA goes to landfill
Furthermore, dedicated recycling infrastructure for PLA is uncommon and expensive to adopt, as PLA is not a direct drop-in and most PLA is mismanaged or goes to landfill, it added.
Despite this, PHAs and PEF provide ‘promising examples’ of emerging bioplastics which have either reached or are approaching commercialisation.
Having overcome technological challenges, PHA and PEF producers are now actively forming partnerships with brand owners and formulators to expand their application portfolios and achieve commercial viability, the findings showed.
The report also observed increasing regulatory support for bioplastics.
Significant regulatory changes across the US, Asia and Europe, including the EU commitment to reviewing the implementation of mandated bio-based content targets of up to 44 per cent for plastics packaging within a revised Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation by 2027, will drive the future growth of the bioplastics industry, the report added.
