Rising US tariffs are driving up costs across plastics supply chains and creating new challenges for sustainable packaging, according to new analysis from the Plastics Industry Association.
The report shows US plastics trade shrank in 2025 even as import duties more than doubled, a combination that points to disruption rather than underlying strength.
Exports of plastics materials, products and equipment fell 3.4 per cent to $73.6 billion, while imports dropped 5.4 per cent to $74bn. That pushed the trade deficit down sharply, but largely because companies are trading less.
Perc Pineda, chief economist at the association, said: “While the smaller trade deficit may appear positive on the surface, the data suggest a more complex picture.
“It is shaped by reduced trade flows, higher costs, and shifting sourcing decisions rather than stronger underlying competitiveness.”
Direct material-cost impact
For the packaging sector, the implications are immediate. Many producers depend on globally sourced resins, additives and machinery, including high-spec inputs from Japan, meaning higher tariffs feed directly into material costs.
US-Japan trade remains a key part of that system, with the US importing $2.7bn in plastics-related goods from Japan last year, compared with $1.8bn in exports.
But, according to the analysis, that relationship is being reshaped by wider shifts in global trade policy. Japanese economist Shujiro Urata said recent US tariff moves risk accelerating fragmentation in the trading system.
A shift towards power-based trade relations increases uncertainty and instability, he said, warning that changing tariff regimes are disrupting supply chains and slowing trade.
For packaging companies investing in recyclability and circular materials, that instability comes at a difficult time. More complex and regionalised supply chains may improve resilience, but they can also raise costs and slow the roll-out of new technologies.
Innovation and recycling investment
One area where the impact is likely to be felt most directly is in investment decisions around materials innovation and recycling infrastructure.
Higher import costs and tariff volatility can make long-term sourcing contracts more difficult, particularly for advanced polymers and processing equipment used in recyclable and lightweight packaging formats.
Packaging companies also face growing pressure to balance sustainability goals with cost stability. As supply chains regionalise, companies may find it harder to access the same breadth of speciality inputs that have supported recent advances in high-performance recyclable packaging, particularly where those inputs depend on cross-border flows between the US and Asia.
The analysis suggests this shift is less about a decline in trade relationships and more about how those relationships are being reorganised.
For packaging firms, that means sustainability strategies may increasingly be shaped not only by environmental regulation and consumer demand, but also by the structure and cost of global trade itself.
“The US-Japan trade relationship is no longer just about bilateral flows,” Pineda said. “It’s increasingly about resilience, competitiveness, and strategic alignment in a changing global economy.”
